August 2008 Archives

GustavNASAJPL.jpgThe National Hurricane Center's latest advisory pins Hurricane Gustav at Category 3 intensity, with winds near 115 miles per hour/185 km/hr.  It's advancing on the northern Gulf Coast at around 17 mph/27 km/hr, with tropical storm winds now hitting land.  The NHC is also forecasting a huge and dangerous storm surge of 18-25 feet.   

Mississippi coast cities are looking at a one in five chance of hurricane-strength winds and nearly 100 percent chance of tropical storm force winds.


Painfully aware of the failings that led to that horrific suffering and more than 1,600 deaths, this time officials moved beyond merely insisting tourists and residents leave south Louisiana. They threatened arrest, loaded thousands onto buses and warned that anyone who remained behind would not be rescued.

This evening, Louisiana Gov. Jindal estimated there were perhaps ten thousand people left in the city.  

Parts of coastal Texas have been evacuated as well; a notice up on the Gustav Information Center (launched by Andy Carvin and in search of volunteers to help set up resources, update and verify content, and more) cautions Louisiana evacuees to avoid the area surrounding Beaumont, Texas, which is now in Gustav's west--trending path.

As citizens of New Orleans and other points on the Gulf Coast attempt to learn from Hurricane Katrina by getting out of Gustav's way, GOP presidential candidate John McCain made ready to visit the scene of impending disaster, and the Republican Party has sharply curtailed its planned convention activities for Monday.  The New York Times reports,

On the day Hurricane Katrina made landfall three years ago, President Bush helped Senator John McCain celebrate his birthday with a cake that melted on a blazing hot airport tarmac, just as the president's approval ratings would in the weeks to come.

This time around, the party's off. Or at least it is for Mr. Bush and Mr. McCain, who on Sunday sought to focus attention on efforts to prepare for Hurricane Gustav at the expense of carefully laid plans for this week's Republican National Convention.

In some ways, it was a nightmare moment for Republicans. The hurricane's approach put front and center once more some of the worst failings of the Bush presidency at the very moment Mr. McCain was to begin presenting a vision of the post-Bush Republican Party to the nation.

With television tracking the storm's approach and showing images of an emptying New Orleans, it was hard for voters to escape reminders of how Mr. Bush had emerged from Hurricane Katrina severely wounded by judgments of incompetence and lack of empathy....more


Image: Hurricane Gustav. Credit: NASA/JPL
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Much buzz building around the internets as Hurricane Gustav approaches the US Gulf Coast.  Gustav has in fact bashed through the Caribbean already, killing 78 according to the Associated Press.  It whipped up to Cat 3 and then Cat 4 as it made for Cuba's west coast. The National Hurricane Center feels it could well spin up to Cat 5, and make landfall on Louisiana on Monday very near the mouth of the Mississippi River, right around the time the Republican National Convention is kicking off up at the Big Muddy's northern end, in Minneapolis-St. Paul.  

From Cuba, National Hurricane Center projections show it traveling right at New Orleans; New Orleanians are evacuating by the thousands.

Update, 9:30 pm ET: New Orleans Mayor Nagin has ordered a mandatory evacuation of the city.

Activity is building on the social networks to share information, and I suppose coordinate emergency response if it comes to that -- notably the Gustav Info Center on Ning, set up by Andy Carvin.

Image: National Hurricane Center, "Coast Watches and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone"

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When it comes to science and environmental reporting in the U.S., The New York Times remains essential. There were so many good examples this week of The Times' broad reach (with one assist from the AP) that today's Morning Ecology is all Times.

And since a well-rounded Apartment Ecology includes appreciating the world beyond these walls and windows, included is a great NYT article -- by my friend Michelle Nijius --on new research into the abilities of crows and ravens to recognize human faces.



Image: Geoff York/World Wildlife Fund, via The New York Times via Reuters. World Wildlife writes in part,
ANCHORAGE, Alaska, August 21, 2008 - An aerial survey by government scientists in Alaska's Chukchi Sea this week found at least nine polar bears swimming in open water - with one at least 60 miles from shore - raising concern among wildlife experts about their survival. A World Wildlife Fund (WWF) polar bear expert said the bears could have difficulty making it safely to shore and risk drowning, particularly if a storm arises. "To find so many polar bears at sea at one time is extremely worrisome because it could be an indication that as the sea ice on which they live and hunt continues to melt, many more bears may be out there facing similar risk," said Geoff York, a polar bear biologist with WWF. "As climate change continues to dramatically disrupt the Arctic, polar bears and their cubs are being forced to swim longer distances to find food and habitat."
Read more...
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Image: Dockside Green concept image, via Canadian Architect. "Dockside Green, a Victoria development designed by Busby Perkins + Will with Windmill Developments and Vancity as project developers, is not only looking to achieve LEED Platinum status but is interested in exploring the recently launched Living Building Challenge as an additional method of measuring overall sustainability."

Inhabitat writes: "Situated in Victoria, British Columbia, Dockside Green is a burgeoning community that has set its sights on becoming the first LEED Platinum community in the world. Its initial phase of development was recently completed, earning it an incredible 63 out of 70 points and qualifying it for LEED Platinum for New Construction. This is no small undertaking, especially considering the 95 new condo homes, townhomes, and commercial spaces that comprise the planned community. The usual sustainable suspects can be found throughout the property including Biomass gasification (the use of wood-waste to create all heat energy and hot water), improved insulation and high performance glazing, energy-efficient fixtures, on-site waste water treatment plant, green roofs and a naturalized creek."


Morning Ecology 21 August 2008

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What a wonderful image from Northcountry Boy on Flickr -- of people out for group exercise on Park Avenue on 16 Aug 2008.  NYC has been closing Park Avenue to cars on Saturday days in August, 7 am to 1 pm. 

Per the City:

This event takes a valuable public space - our City's streets - and opens them up to people to play, walk, bike, and breathe. Summer Streets provides more space for healthy recreation and is a part of NYC's greening initiative by encouraging New Yorkers to use more sustainable forms of transportation.

Modeled on other events from around the world including Bogotá, Colombia's Ciclovia, Paris, France's Paris Plage, and even New York's own Museum Mile, this event will be part bike tour, part block party, a great time for exercise, people watching, and just enjoying summer mornings.

This coming Sat, 23 Aug is the last day to get out and bicycle, skate, run, walk, and do whatever the people in this photo are doing, on a car-free Park Avenue.

This event is for people of all ages and ability levels to share the streets respectfully.

I'm on a deadline -- will get back to posting Wednesday or Thursday.

2111012832_0bf4640afb.jpgLong unable to simply overturn the nation's keystone species protection law, the Endangered Species Act (turns out the American public more or less likes protecting endangered species), the ESA's enemies are instead making a late-term end run around it.  The Bush administration announced yesterday that it's floating a raft of changes to the rules that currently require federal agencies to consult government scientists on whether a particular project -- a mall, a dam, a highway, etc. -- would harm endangered plants and critters -- and factor their opinions into whether or not the projects are approved.  

Under the proposed upending, agencies would no longer have to seek these consultations.  This rules massacre would also prohibit agencies from considering a project's impact on global warming as part of its analysis.

The Associated Press reports in part that:Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne defended the revisions, saying they were needed to ensure that the Endangered Species Act would not be used as a "back door" to regulate the gases blamed for global warming.

[...]

"We need to focus our efforts where they will do the most good," Kempthorne said in a news conference arranged hastily after the AP reported details of the proposal. "It is important to use our time and resources to protect the most vulnerable species. It is not possible to draw a link between greenhouse gas emissions and distant observations of impacts on species."

The rule changes unveiled Monday would apply to any project a federal agency would fund, build or authorize that the agency itself determines is unlikely to harm endangered wildlife and their habitat. Government wildlife experts currently participate in tens of thousands of such reviews each year.

The revisions also would limit which effects can be considered harmful and set a 60-day deadline for wildlife experts to evaluate a project when they are asked to become involved. If no decision is made within 60 days, the project can move ahead.

"If adopted, these changes would seriously weaken the safety net of habitat protections that we have relied upon to protect and recover endangered fish, wildlife and plants for the past 35 years," said John Kostyack, executive director of the National Wildlife Federation's Wildlife Conservation and Global Warming initiative.
What "back door," Mr. Kempthorne.  The ESA, the Clean Air Act, and other enviro-legislative milestones of the 1970's were intentionally written to be adaptable to new, better knowledge and understanding of how endangered species and human health are affected by pollutants that were not yet understood or discovered when they were enacted.

Secondly, it's impossible to prove direct links between global warming and just about anything happening in the immediate present.  Why?  Because there is a huge amount of "noise" in the moment, including the weather, the sun's activity, a volcano erupting on the other side of the globe, etc., that can play into current climate conditions.  However, it's perfectly good science to make inferences based on observations of current conditions combined with the accepted understanding that human-caused (anthropogenic) global warming is underway (that "signal" has emerged through the noise in the past two decades of scientific research into climate change).  This sort of application of knowledge is what credible researchers -- the kinds of scientists who consult on endangered species, say -- do for a living.  

So here, Mr. Kempthorne is attempting to cloud the issue with a rhetorical maneuver that could confuse a public not well-versed in how science works.  (Some might call it lying by inference.)

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions due to their harm to threatened and endangered species would not be a "back door" to GHG regulation.  It would be perfectly legal.  It's understandably frustrating for supporters of unbridled fossil fuel use, drilling, building, damming and mining that the Supreme Court itself has upheld the legality of assessing and (possibly) regulating GHGs under the Clean Air Act.  Chances are that if challenged, it would be found legal under the ESA as well.

But since they can't win on the merits of their arguments, they're trying to rewrite how those laws are implemented, instead.  

Dear readers, it would be worth it to take some of our attention off shopping for organic cotton T-shirts and biodegradable countertop wipes (Method's are made of bamboo, I discovered yesterday), at least for a while, and keep track of this Hail Mary pass against the Endangered Species Act by the Bush administration.

Image: Last December, protesting Polar Bears demanded that the United Nations Climate Change Conference "Save Humans Too."  Mighty fine of them. More info:www.oxfam.org/climatechange. Credit: Ng Swan Ti/Oxfam/flickr

Morning Ecology 11 August 2008

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Pakistan_TRM_2008218.jpg Image: "Monsoon Rains Flood Pakistan" -- "Unusually intense monsoon rains pounded Pakistan in late July and early August 2008. This image compares rainfall as observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite between July 5 and August 5, 2008, to average rainfall normally seen during Pakistan's July monsoon.

"Areas that are blue or green received more rain than average, while areas that are yellow or brown received less rainfall. Pakistan stands out from the surrounding countries in that it alone received significantly more rain than average in July 2008.

"The intense rains triggered deadly floods that forced at least 82,000 from their homes, caused 27 deaths, and destroyed thousands of homes and many agricultural fields, reported CNN.

"The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint mission between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA.

"References: Associated Press. (2008, August 5). Pakistan floods displace 82,000, kill dozens. Published by CNN. Accessed August 8, 2008.

"NASA image by Hal Pierce. Caption by Holli Riebeek."
...my trip with Denmark's minister of climate and energy, Connie Hedegaard, to see the effects of climate change on Greenland's ice sheet leaves me with a very strong opinion: Our kids are going to be so angry with us one day.

We've charged their future on our Visa cards. We've added so many greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, for our generation's growth, that our kids are likely going to spend a good part of their adulthood, maybe all of it, just dealing with the climate implications of our profligacy. And now our leaders are telling them the way out is "offshore drilling" for more climate-changing fossil fuels. Madness. Sheer madness.

Most people assume that the effects of climate change are going to be felt through another big disaster, like Katrina. Not necessarily, says Minik Thorleif Rosing, a top geologist at Denmark's National History Museum and one of my traveling companions. "Most people will actually feel climate change delivered to them by the postman," he explains. It will come in the form of higher water bills, because of increased droughts in some areas; higher energy bills, because the use of fossil fuels becomes prohibitive; and higher insurance and mortgage rates, because of much more violently unpredictable weather.

Remember: climate change means "global weirding," not just global warming.

-- Thomas Friedman, The New York Times, 06 Aug 2008
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Image: A sketch of "war," by an Inuit child, in the notebook of polar researcher Gianluca Frinchillucci, who writes:
Some years ago I was in eastern Greenland on an research. I was visiting a very particular village, Isertoq, probably housing the last branch of Inuit migratory movements, remained isolated for ages...[I]t was the time of Iraq war, when televisions from all over the world talked about the flight and the torment of thousands of men, women and children. An inuit child took my notepad and started drawing a sketch of how war was in his mind.

It was the perfect portrait of war, fitted for the land of the great ice, conceived by an inuit child's imagination: the upheaval in a world inhabited by bears, seals, narwhals, reindeers and people peacefully living their lives. And there I started thinking... Why don't we promote an exchange network, where children from all over the world can, thanks to the immediate way of the drawing, tell each other their stories, hopes, flights of fancy, and, why not, their ways of living and cultures?

And it was there that the Project "Friends from the World", now involving children from Greenland, Siberia, Italy and Ethiopia and followed by the Italian non profit association Perigeo Onlus, was born.
Source: Blog of the International Polar Year 2007-2008